A medical professional asked me during this crisis, “how confident are you that I won’t lose my money?” I thought about my answer and came up with the following analogy:
If I were a seasoned nutritionist, fully credentialed with a 30 year track record of helping people lose weight, I would feel pretty confident under the right treatment, no extraordinary DNA history, that I could help an individual lose 30 pounds. What I cannot do is guarantee that person will lose weight as much as they wanted or would not gain the weight back quickly, over time or not at all. Why? Because I cannot control human nature! I cannot stop someone from binging or choosing three big Mac’s rather than maintaining the proper diet I recommended. I also can’t control how committed they are to the overall plan that we created together. I can’t guarantee this person will not have an unforeseen heart attack or get a virus that impacts his or her immunity system. I have high conviction that if you stay with the plan, discipline yourself with supervision and proper care you will not only keep the weight off, you may even find other benefits like not needing medication to control cholesterol or high blood pressure.
The S & P may hit a very low point from its high. While it is different than weight loss, I am hopeful that the market will recover to its mean value and continue to rise. I cannot say with certainty how long that will take, when it will start, or if some other interruption will occur to exacerbate the current economy. I do know that our clients need to have sufficient liquidity and an appropriate allocation under our mutual control and decision points to weather this crisis or any other crisis in the same way we need proper nutrition and exercise to stay healthy regardless of time frame.
In short, we can control what we can and need to stay rational. It is a process. We have history to reference what has worked and we have innovation to adapt to changes and future considerations. No other countries have demonstrated those truisms better than America.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.